Step 1 of 16 Act One · The Board [ Data That Thinks ]

What This Platform Does

Two answers every day, from one probability.

Los Angeles Rams @ Denver BroncosMoneyline · Sep 23 · not a live price
The line−137 CZR−140 HR−142 DK−142 FD−145 MGM−150 FLIFF+15 more
The probability
Most likely · best value
Los Angeles Rams58%
−137 CZR · best price−142 DK · your book
The edge
NO EDGE58.1% against the 57.8% the price needs
Ask Consensus EdgeAsk
What are my outcomes if I split $100 between the ML and the spread?
Bills win by 8+ +$57.97Bills win by 1-6 −$35.51Chargers win −$100.00
The record, in public
— settled picks— per $100won —, break-even —
Step 2 of 16 Act One · The Board

Reading the Board

A card for every game. Quiet on edges; never quiet on what is likely.

/slate · GamesA worked example. Not a live price.
All Sports
Baseball
Basketball
Football
NFL
NCAAF
Hockey
Soccer
Cricket
Tennis
MMA
Search teams…
BEST BETSNFL
Los Angeles Rams 74% · Miami Dolphins +13.5 51% · Under 46.5 52%
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
NO SIDE · no market clears its flooropen analysis
Most likely to win Los Angeles Rams 71.9%
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota VikingsIllustrative · not a real pick
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 at -105 · DraftKings · +10.3% EV · 1.0u ($10)open analysis
line · price · win prob
TeamMLSpreadOver/Under
price · win probline · price · win probline · price · win prob
Detroit Lions+17034.0%+3.5-11543.5%O 47.5-11048.0%
Minnesota Vikings-20066.0%-3.5-10556.5%U 47.5-11052.0%
Most likely to win Minnesota Vikings 66.0%
Step 3 of 16 Act One · The Board

Best Bets: Likelihood and Price

Ranked for hitting, at the best price you can get. Not a call on edge.

/slate · Games · Best BetsA worked example, recorded 2026-09-20. Not a live price.
BEST BETS

NFL

The side most likely to hit in every market, ranked for hitting at your Standard risk setting. Not a call on edge. How this works

Standard risk
Los Angeles Rams 74% · Miami Dolphins +13.5 51% · Under 46.5 52%
ML•SpreadO/U

Moneyline books’ number

Los Angeles Ramsvs New York Giants · home74%chance to winbreak-even 74%-278 CS · best price-285 DKEV -0.6%

Spread

Miami Dolphins+13.5@ San Francisco 49ers51%chance to coverbreak-even 52%-105 HR · best price-110 DKEV -2.4%

Over/Under

Under46.5Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs52%chance underbreak-even 54%-110 BR · best price-118 DKEV -4.7%

No edge on the board. None of the upcoming NFL games clear our bar. Our numbers sit at the market's. Illustrative · not real prices

Placing an ungraded bet? Don't pay extra.

  • Miami Dolphins +13.5: -105 at Hard Rock Bet, most books -110.
  • Under 46.5, IND @ KC: -110 at BetRivers, most books -118.

Want a side? Start here. The board's most likely NFL outcomes, with our chance next to what the price says, so you know exactly what you're paying for.

A graded edge pick · illustrative Minnesota Vikings-3.5BETvs DET56%-105 DK+10.3% edge
Step 4 of 16 Act One · The Board

The Price Sets the Bar

Win rate cannot tell you whether a record made money. Profit can.

The bar each price sets break-even = risk ÷ (risk + win)
−110 risk $110 to win $100 52.4%
−300 risk $300 to win $100 75.0%
+150 risk $100 to win $150 40.0%
100 bets at −300 · 70% winners
70 wins × $100+$7,000
30 losses × $300−$9,000
Net−$2,000
100 bets at +150 · 44% winners
44 wins × $150+$6,600
56 losses × $100−$5,600
Net+$1,000
Step 5 of 16 Act One · The Board

Recommendation and Grade

Two vocabularies: what to do, and whether the number can be trusted.

Recommendation · what to do
BETA priced edge strong enough for the full suggested stake.
LEANA more moderate edge, with a smaller suggested stake.
CONSENSUS LOCKThe sources agree on a likely outcome. Not a guarantee; sized conservatively.
NO EDGENot enough advantage at this price. The side can still rank high in Best Bets.
Edge grade · can the edge be trusted
A
B
DEFER
SUSPECT
/slate · analysisA worked example. Not live data.
Edge grade DEFER — Held back by the quality gate: the sources' agree-or-disagree calls did not match their own numbers.
Step 6 of 16 Act One · The Board

Signals and the Market

Three kinds of source, one probability, and the market's own verdict after we pick.

/slate · Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos · Market readRecorded Sep 27, 7:25 PM ET. Not a live price.
The price
21 books put the Los Angeles Rams at 51.3% to win, with the vig taken out.
Since open
Spread: Pinnacle opened +2.5 → now +1 (-1.5); consensus +3 → +1 toward Denver Broncos, crossed 3. Over/Under opened 45.5 → now 44.5 (-1).
The books
They agree: every book is within 1.8 points.
/slate · Signal stackA worked example. Not a live price.

Signal stack

SignalDenver BroncosLos Angeles RamsWeight
Square (de-vig market)43.7%56.3%51%
Sharp / Elo38.5%61.5%34%
Polymarket43.5%56.5%15%
Consensus blend41.9%58.1%
Signal detail (7 active, blended into Sharp/Elo)
Rest & TravelDenver Broncos52.0%
DivisionalNo lean50.0%
EloLos Angeles Rams58.5%
MotivationNo lean50.0%
EPA ModelDenver Broncos52.2%
QB ImpactLos Angeles Rams55.5%
Turnover MarginDenver Broncos53.5%
/slate · Line movement

Line movement

Market with ushome win %
first seen, 24 hours agoruns to now

Since we first saw this line 24 hours ago, the books have moved toward Los Angeles Rams: home win probability went from 45.2% to 43.1% (-2.2 pp). That is toward our side: the market now has Los Angeles Rams at 56.9%, still short of our 58%, so the price is worse than when we first saw it. All 5 books moved the same way. The move came earlier, and the line is still moving.

Step 7 of 16 Act One · The Board

Your First Decision: A Real Pick

A real pick, chosen by rule, read the way the page lays it out.

Today's pick
—Best Betsopen analysis $10001u = $10My bookDraftKings
loading today's pick…open analysis
Edge
—
Best price
—
across books
Our probability
—
Sizing
—

Free

  • NBA, NFL and MLB boards
  • The market's own probability on every game
  • Best price across books
  • The shape of Best Bets:

Pro

  • Best Bets, ranked by probability, value and your risk setting.
  • Prices at your book, and graded edge picks when they qualify.
  • Your AI analyst, every sport, props, line movement, alerts and bet tracking.
Step 8 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Ask Consensus Edge

An analyst on top of your board. It computes the numbers instead of guessing.

Consensus Edge ChatAsk Consensus EdgeAsk
Ask about a game, a price, your bets, or what any betting term means…

A real answer, recorded …

Step 9 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Expected Value

The gap between the book's probability and ours, as dollars per hundred staked.

One game, both sides
Favorite−200Best Bets lists this side
ours 62.0%needs 66.7%EV −7.0%
Underdog+200The edge is on this side
ours 38.0%needs 33.3%EV +14.0%
The amber line is what the price needs. Best prices across books.
/slate · analysis · Edge math

Edge math

Our consensus probability vs. the offered implied probability:

Our probability = 0.3800
Break-even = 0.3333  (from +200)
Payout = 3.0000  (decimal odds, stake included)
EV = (0.3800 × 3.0000) − 1 = +14.0%

Translation: a $100 bet at +200 returns +$14.00 expected per bet, given consensus probability holds.

A worked example. Not live data.
100 bets at +200, 38 winners
Risk $100 to win $200. This side wins 38 times in 100 at our number.
Wins: 38 × $200+$7,600
Losses: 62 × $100−$6,200
Net+$1,400
$14 per $100 staked: the expected value, paid out over many bets, not on any one of them.
Step 10 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Your Book, Your Price

The price you can get is the price that matters.

/slate · GamesA worked example. Not live data.
Lines as of 3:47 PM EDT · refreshed 12 min ago AmericanDecimal My bookDraftKings
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Over 47.5 at -110 · FanDuel · +14.5% EV · at DK +8.0% · 1.6u ($16)open analysis
/slate · analysis · Your price

Your price

Price at your book-125
Number at your bookOver 47.5 (ours)
from our DraftKings line, 12 min ago
Your EV +8.0%
Ours +14.5% at -110 FANDUEL
Break-even -150
Your stake 1.0u ($10) Ours 1.6u ($16)

Any price better than -150, like -140, is still +EV at our number.

Below our 10.0% floor at your price — needs -120 or better.

Open calculator ↗
/slate · analysis · Line shopping

Line shopping

5 books at Over 47.5
BookPriceImpliedEdge
FANDUEL-11052.4%+14.5%
BETMGM-11252.8%+13.6%
CAESARS-11553.5%+12.2%
BET365-11854.1%+10.8%
DRAFTKINGS your book-12555.6%+8.0%
Step 11 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Bankroll and Sizing

One unit is one percent. One setting sizes your stakes and ranks Best Bets.

/slate · top bar · Settings
$50001u = $50 Bankroll $5,000 · 1u = $50
Risk tolerance
Standard — 7.5% Kelly
A worked example. Not live data.
The same pick at two bankrolls · a worked example
Bankroll $1,000 · 1u = $10
The card
Over 47.5 at -110 · FanDuel · +14.5% EV · at DK +8.0% · 1.6u ($16)
The analysis
Sizing
1.6u ($16)
$4.00 – $16
Standard: $12
Your price at your book
Your stake 1.0u ($10) Ours 1.6u ($16)
Bankroll $5,000 · 1u = $50
The card
Over 47.5 at -110 · FanDuel · +14.5% EV · at DK +8.0% · 1.6u ($80)
The analysis
Sizing
1.6u ($80)
$20 – $80
Standard: $60
Your price at your book
Your stake 1.0u ($50) Ours 1.6u ($80)
One setting, two jobsConservativeModerateStandardAggressive
Stake2.5% Kelly5% Kelly7.5% Kelly10% Kelly, the ceiling
Best Bets λ2.01.51.00.25
Step 12 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Props and Parlays

The same discipline beyond the game lines.

/slate · PropsA worked example. Not live data.
Props Scanner ⓘ How Prop Predictions Work MLBNBANHL Build SGP
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians2 players · 2 lines
Hits2 players · 2 lines
Detroit Tigers2 players · 2 lines
PlayerLineOddsProjEV
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 +1402 books (Δ10) 1.5 +5.6%DK +1.2% LEAN
Riley Greene Over 1.5 +1302 books (Δ10) 1.7 +10.4%DK +5.6% BET
Same-Game Parlay(2 legs)
Riley GreeneHits Over 1.5 @ +130
Kerry CarpenterHits Over 1.5 @ +140
CalculateSave SlipClear
Joint probability24.9%
Independence baseline21.1%
+17.9% from correlation (ρ=0.17)
Parlay odds+452
EV (vs market)+37.4%
Payout on $50$276.00
Step 13 of 16 Act Two · The Tools

Log It, Track It

The yardstick we hold ourselves to, for your own bets.

/me/log-betA worked example. Not live data.
Logged. Dallas Cowboys -163 · 1u · bet #1 — it will settle when the game completes. Log another bet
Bet
Sport
NFL
Bet type
Moneyline
Side (team)
Dallas Cowboys
American odds
-163
Stake (units)
1.0
Book (optional)
DraftKings
Logged ✓
/me/clv
Bets logged
24
CLV graded
15
Settled
22
Win %
54.5%
Mean CLV
+1.12pp
% beat close
60%
PL (units)
+3.40u
Publish your CLV
Show my CLV publicly
/slate · Games
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
★Log
/me/alerts
← SlateMy CLVLog betDashboardAlertsWatchlistPortfolioYour EV
Steam ↑ +2.4pp on Dallas Cowboys moneyline — BetOnline.ag, Pinnacle
Steam · NFL · Sep 13, 6:14 PM ET
How we priced it →Steam feed →
Step 14 of 16 Act Three · The Record

Confidence and Calibration

How much of a measured edge survives, and how the system corrects itself.

/slate · analysisRecorded 2026-09-13. Not a live price.

Confidence conviction

i
EloAgrees60.3%
SharpAgrees68.4%
SquareAgrees61.1%
PMAgrees61.5%
All 4 sources agree with Dallas Cowboys moneyline here.
Does 70% happen 70% of the time?
An illustration, not our numbers. Each dot is one band of our probability, sized by its number of bets.
/slate · Best BetsRecorded 2026-09-20. Not a live price.

Moneyline books’ number

Los Angeles Ramsvs New York Giants · home74%chance to winbreak-even 74%-278 CS · best price-285 DKEV -0.6%
Step 15 of 16 Act Three · The Record

The Record

Read live from the platform's own audit, not typed into this slide.

Profit per $100 staked
—
loading the live record…
Win rate — and the bar it must clear
—
break-even for the prices actually taken
After we pick, does the price move our way?
—
how often the market followed us before kickoff
The live figures load from this platform’s own audit. Whatever they say today is what they say.
Step 16 of 16 Act Three · The Record

Better Questions

Here is how to start.

  1. NFLMy bookDraftKings
    Your sport and book
  2. $1000Standard risk
    Your bankroll and risk
  3. BEST BETS NFL
    Scan Best Bets
  4. open analysis
    Open the analysis
  5. BET-105 DK1.0u ($10)
    The call, the price, the stake
Pro

Two answers, every day.

Free

  • NBA, NFL and MLB boards
  • The market's own probability on every game
  • Best price across books
  • The shape of Best Bets, and the public record

Pro

  • Best Bets, ranked by probability, value and your risk setting.
  • Prices at your book, and graded edge picks when they qualify.
  • Your AI analyst, every sport, props, line movement, alerts and bet tracking.
Sign in See Pro
[ Data That Thinks ] Information only, not betting advice. 21+ where betting is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.