Jaime Faria vs Adam Walton

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-18 21:00:00+00:00 · completed winner: a

P(Jaime Faria) = 1.000  |  P(Adam Walton) = 0.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Jaime Faria) 0.576
Pinnacle P(Adam Walton) 0.424
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Jaime FariaAdam Walton Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Jaime Faria unknown — — —
Adam Walton unknown 9 0.820 6.3

Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentJaime FariaAdam WaltonNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -3.00pp (load 6.0) -1.50pp (load 3.0) -1.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Jaime Faria) P(Adam Walton) Exp games Source
23:06:23 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.414 0.586 38.8 feed
23:06:54 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.436 0.564 38.7 feed
23:07:24 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.430 0.570 38.7 feed
23:07:55 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.419 0.581 38.8 feed
23:08:25 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} b 0.422 0.578 38.8 feed
23:08:56 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.507 0.493 39.8 feed
23:09:26 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.514 0.486 39.7 feed
23:09:57 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.509 0.491 39.8 feed
23:10:28 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.509 0.491 39.7 feed
23:10:58 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} b 0.499 0.501 39.8 feed
23:11:29 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.431 0.569 40.8 feed
23:11:59 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.412 0.588 40.7 feed
23:12:30 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.438 0.562 40.8 feed
23:13:01 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.422 0.578 40.8 feed
23:13:31 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.443 0.557 40.8 feed
23:14:02 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.422 0.578 40.8 feed
23:14:32 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.480 0.520 41.7 feed
23:15:03 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.493 0.507 41.8 feed
23:15:34 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '1']} b 0.513 0.487 41.8 feed
23:16:04 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '2']} b 0.484 0.516 41.7 feed
23:16:35 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '3']} b 0.491 0.509 41.8 feed
23:17:05 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} b 0.488 0.512 41.8 feed
23:17:36 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} b 0.498 0.502 41.9 feed
23:18:07 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} b 0.500 0.500 41.8 feed
23:18:37 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} b 0.513 0.487 41.8 feed
23:19:08 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} b 0.507 0.493 41.7 feed
23:19:38 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '4']} b 0.522 0.478 41.8 feed
23:20:09 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '5']} b 0.500 0.500 41.8 feed
23:20:39 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '6']} b 0.504 0.496 41.8 feed
23:21:32 4 13 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [7, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['16', '17']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.