| Pinnacle P(Aryna Sabalenka) | 0.871 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Sara Bejlek) | 0.129 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Aryna Sabalenka | Sara Bejlek | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | big_server | 190 | 0.750 | 5.3 |
| Sara Bejlek | unknown | 4 | 0.500 | 0.2 |
Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Aryna Sabalenka | Sara Bejlek | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -2.65pp (load 5.3) | -1.50pp (load 3.0) | -1.15pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Aryna Sabalenka) | P(Sara Bejlek) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:53:23 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.290 | 0.710 | 34.3 | feed |
| 03:53:53 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.256 | 0.744 | 34.8 | feed |
| 03:54:24 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.249 | 0.750 | 34.7 | feed |
| 03:54:54 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.268 | 0.732 | 34.7 | feed |
| 03:55:25 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.257 | 0.744 | 34.7 | feed |
| 03:55:55 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.249 | 0.750 | 34.7 | feed |
| 03:56:26 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.250 | 0.750 | 34.6 | feed |
| 03:56:57 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.243 | 0.757 | 34.5 | feed |
| 03:57:27 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.244 | 0.756 | 34.7 | feed |
| 03:57:58 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.243 | 0.757 | 35.7 | feed |
| 03:58:28 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.251 | 0.750 | 35.7 | feed |
| 03:58:59 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.265 | 0.736 | 35.6 | feed |
| 03:59:29 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} | b | 0.253 | 0.747 | 35.6 | feed |
| 04:00:00 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} | b | 0.249 | 0.750 | 35.7 | feed |
| 04:00:30 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.236 | 0.764 | 35.3 | feed |
| 04:01:01 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.246 | 0.754 | 35.7 | feed |
| 04:01:32 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.238 | 0.762 | 35.6 | feed |
| 04:02:02 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.240 | 0.760 | 35.7 | feed |
| 04:02:33 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.237 | 0.762 | 35.6 | feed |
| 04:03:04 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.249 | 0.750 | 35.6 | feed |
| 04:03:34 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.253 | 0.748 | 35.7 | feed |
| 04:04:05 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.232 | 0.768 | 35.6 | feed |
| 04:04:35 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.258 | 0.742 | 35.8 | feed |
| 04:05:06 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.208 | 0.792 | 35.9 | feed |
| 04:05:36 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.209 | 0.790 | 36.1 | feed |
| 04:06:07 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.225 | 0.775 | 36.0 | feed |
| 04:06:38 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.220 | 0.780 | 35.9 | feed |
| 04:07:08 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.229 | 0.771 | 36.0 | feed |
| 04:07:39 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.210 | 0.789 | 35.9 | feed |
| 04:08:09 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['13', '10']} | b | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.0 | feed |