| Pinnacle P(Iga Swiatek) | 0.942 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Diane Parry) | 0.058 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Iga Swiatek | Diane Parry | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | aggressive_baseliner | 185 | 0.771 | 2.3 |
| Diane Parry | big_server | 51 | 0.700 | 4.3 |
Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Diane Parry on hard.
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Iga Swiatek | Diane Parry | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -3.00pp (load 8.0) | -2.00pp (load 4.0) | -1.00pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Iga Swiatek) | P(Diane Parry) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:23:34 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 1], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} | b | 0.939 | 0.061 | 26.1 | feed |
| 16:24:05 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.863 | 0.137 | 28.6 | feed |
| 16:24:35 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.866 | 0.134 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:25:06 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.853 | 0.147 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:25:36 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.865 | 0.135 | 28.4 | feed |
| 16:26:07 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.861 | 0.139 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:26:37 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.865 | 0.135 | 28.4 | feed |
| 16:27:08 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.873 | 0.127 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:27:39 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.843 | 0.157 | 28.6 | feed |
| 16:28:09 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} | b | 0.850 | 0.150 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:28:40 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} | b | 0.847 | 0.153 | 28.6 | feed |
| 16:29:10 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} | b | 0.850 | 0.150 | 28.6 | feed |
| 16:29:41 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.850 | 0.150 | 28.5 | feed |
| 16:30:12 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.855 | 0.145 | 28.4 | feed |
| 16:30:42 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.773 | 0.227 | 31.2 | feed |
| 16:31:12 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.786 | 0.214 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:31:43 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} | b | 0.788 | 0.212 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:32:14 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} | b | 0.780 | 0.220 | 30.8 | feed |
| 16:32:44 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.770 | 0.230 | 31.2 | feed |
| 16:33:15 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.790 | 0.210 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:33:45 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.781 | 0.219 | 31.2 | feed |
| 16:34:16 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} | b | 0.765 | 0.235 | 31.0 | feed |
| 16:34:46 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} | b | 0.779 | 0.221 | 31.2 | feed |
| 16:35:17 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} | b | 0.788 | 0.212 | 30.8 | feed |
| 16:35:47 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.805 | 0.195 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:36:18 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.774 | 0.226 | 31.0 | feed |
| 16:36:48 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.784 | 0.216 | 31.0 | feed |
| 16:37:19 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.794 | 0.206 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:37:50 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.789 | 0.211 | 30.9 | feed |
| 16:38:20 | 3 | 9 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['6', '12']} | b | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.0 | feed |