Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00 · completed winner: a

P(Frances Tiafoe) = 1.000 | P(Felix Auger-Aliassime) = 0.000

live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Frances Tiafoe)	0.337
Pinnacle P(Felix Auger-Aliassime)	0.663
n_books observed	1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface	Frances Tiafoe	Felix Auger-Aliassime	Diff (a−b)
hard	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
clay	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
grass	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
indoor	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
overall	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player	Archetype	n matches	Hold %	Aces / match
Frances Tiafoe	all_court	177	0.827	8.0
Felix Auger-Aliassime	unknown	—	—	—

Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

Adjustment	Frances Tiafoe	Felix Auger-Aliassime	Net
Match fatigue (14d load)	-1.25pp (load 2.5)	-0.50pp (load 1.0)	-0.75pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

Signal	Weight
surface_elo	0.35
recent_form	0.18
h2h_matrix	0.16
surface_transition	0.11
match_simulator	0.10
tournament_fatigue	0.10
Sum	1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (196 ticks)

Time	Set	Game	Score	Server	P(Frances Tiafoe)	P(Felix Auger-Aliassime)	Exp games	Source
02:47:48	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.760	0.240	30.4	feed
02:48:19	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.756	0.244	30.7	feed
02:48:49	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.766	0.234	30.5	feed
02:49:19	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.756	0.244	30.7	feed
02:49:50	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']}	b	0.735	0.265	30.9	feed
02:50:21	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']}	b	0.749	0.251	30.7	feed
02:50:51	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '40']}	b	0.759	0.241	30.6	feed
02:51:22	2	7	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']}	b	0.751	0.249	30.7	feed
02:51:52	2	8	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.787	0.213	31.0	feed
02:52:23	2	8	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.772	0.228	31.0	feed
02:52:54	2	8	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']}	b	0.780	0.220	31.2	feed
02:53:24	2	8	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']}	b	0.783	0.217	31.0	feed
02:53:55	2	8	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']}	b	0.779	0.221	31.1	feed
02:54:25	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.754	0.246	32.7	feed
02:54:56	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.758	0.242	32.6	feed
02:55:26	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.755	0.245	32.6	feed
02:55:57	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']}	b	0.752	0.248	32.5	feed
02:56:28	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']}	b	0.750	0.250	32.6	feed
02:56:58	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '40']}	b	0.748	0.252	32.6	feed
02:57:29	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']}	b	0.761	0.239	32.6	feed
02:57:59	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']}	b	0.742	0.258	32.8	feed
02:58:30	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.761	0.239	32.6	feed
02:59:00	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.738	0.262	32.6	feed
02:59:31	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.733	0.267	33.0	feed
03:00:02	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.753	0.247	32.5	feed
03:00:32	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.744	0.256	32.7	feed
03:01:03	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.759	0.241	32.6	feed
03:01:33	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.739	0.261	32.8	feed
03:02:04	2	9	{'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.764	0.236	32.5	feed
03:02:34	3	10	{'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['7', '12']}	b	1.000	0.000	0.0	feed

Showing last 30 of 196 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.