| Pinnacle P(Amanda Anisimova) | 0.446 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Jessica Pegula) | 0.554 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Amanda Anisimova | Jessica Pegula | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | aggressive_baseliner | 78 | 0.681 | 2.6 |
| Jessica Pegula | aggressive_baseliner | 189 | 0.726 | 2.6 |
Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Jessica Pegula on hard.
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Amanda Anisimova | Jessica Pegula | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -3.00pp (load 7.0) | -3.00pp (load 6.0) | +0.00pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Amanda Anisimova) | P(Jessica Pegula) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:10:14 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.504 | 0.496 | 37.7 | feed |
| 19:10:45 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.492 | 0.508 | 37.8 | feed |
| 19:11:16 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.512 | 0.488 | 37.8 | feed |
| 19:11:46 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.513 | 0.487 | 37.8 | feed |
| 19:12:17 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.487 | 0.513 | 37.7 | feed |
| 19:12:47 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.506 | 0.494 | 37.8 | feed |
| 19:13:18 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.493 | 0.507 | 37.8 | feed |
| 19:13:48 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.493 | 0.506 | 38.7 | feed |
| 19:14:19 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.501 | 0.499 | 38.8 | feed |
| 19:14:49 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.514 | 0.486 | 38.8 | feed |
| 19:15:20 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.502 | 0.498 | 38.7 | feed |
| 19:15:50 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.510 | 0.490 | 38.8 | feed |
| 19:16:21 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.505 | 0.495 | 38.7 | feed |
| 19:16:51 | 3 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.484 | 0.516 | 38.8 | feed |
| 19:17:22 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.496 | 0.504 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:17:52 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.497 | 0.503 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:18:23 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '0']} | b | 0.492 | 0.508 | 39.7 | feed |
| 19:18:53 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '1']} | b | 0.483 | 0.516 | 39.9 | feed |
| 19:19:24 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '1']} | b | 0.494 | 0.506 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:19:55 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '2']} | b | 0.473 | 0.526 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:20:25 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} | b | 0.498 | 0.502 | 39.7 | feed |
| 19:20:56 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} | b | 0.491 | 0.508 | 39.7 | feed |
| 19:21:26 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '3']} | b | 0.494 | 0.506 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:21:57 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '3']} | b | 0.502 | 0.498 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:22:27 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '3']} | b | 0.484 | 0.516 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:22:58 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '4']} | b | 0.514 | 0.486 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:23:29 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['4', '4']} | b | 0.505 | 0.495 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:23:59 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['5', '4']} | b | 0.494 | 0.506 | 39.7 | feed |
| 19:24:30 | 3 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['6', '4']} | b | 0.488 | 0.512 | 39.8 | feed |
| 19:25:00 | 4 | 13 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [6, 7], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '16']} | b | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.0 | feed |