Sorana Cirstea vs Jessica Pegula

hard wta masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_wta_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-19 16:30:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Sorana Cirstea) = 0.000  |  P(Jessica Pegula) = 1.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Sorana Cirstea) 0.251
Pinnacle P(Jessica Pegula) 0.749
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Sorana CirsteaJessica Pegula Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Sorana Cirstea aggressive_baseliner 109 0.687 2.8
Jessica Pegula aggressive_baseliner 189 0.726 2.6

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Jessica Pegula on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentSorana CirsteaJessica PegulaNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -1.25pp (load 2.5) -3.00pp (load 6.0) +1.75pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Sorana Cirstea) P(Jessica Pegula) Exp games Source
18:50:28 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.505 0.495 37.8 feed
18:50:59 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} b 0.482 0.518 37.8 feed
18:51:29 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.480 0.520 37.8 feed
18:52:00 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.488 0.512 37.8 feed
18:52:30 3 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.507 0.493 37.7 feed
18:53:01 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.424 0.576 38.7 feed
18:53:31 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.441 0.559 38.7 feed
18:54:02 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.413 0.587 38.8 feed
18:54:32 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.431 0.569 38.8 feed
18:55:03 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.435 0.565 38.8 feed
18:55:34 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.396 0.604 38.8 feed
18:56:04 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.446 0.554 38.8 feed
18:56:35 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.419 0.581 38.8 feed
18:57:05 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.425 0.575 38.8 feed
18:57:36 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.440 0.560 38.8 feed
18:58:06 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.427 0.573 38.8 feed
18:58:36 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.433 0.567 38.8 feed
18:59:07 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.447 0.553 38.8 feed
18:59:37 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.424 0.576 38.8 feed
19:00:08 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.433 0.567 38.8 feed
19:00:38 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.432 0.568 38.8 feed
19:01:09 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.421 0.579 38.8 feed
19:01:39 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.440 0.560 38.8 feed
19:02:10 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.419 0.581 38.8 feed
19:02:41 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} b 0.439 0.561 38.8 feed
19:03:11 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.428 0.572 38.9 feed
19:03:42 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.420 0.580 38.8 feed
19:04:12 4 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 7], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['17', '13']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
19:17:34 4 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 7], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['17', '13']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
19:18:34 4 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [5, 7], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['17', '13']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.