| Pinnacle P(Marie Bouzkova) | 0.369 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Iva Jović) | 0.631 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Marie Bouzkova | Iva Jović | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Bouzkova | aggressive_baseliner | 138 | 0.683 | 2.0 |
| Iva Jović | unknown | 2 | 0.720 | 0.5 |
Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Marie Bouzkova | Iva Jović | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -1.00pp (load 2.0) | -1.50pp (load 3.0) | +0.50pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Marie Bouzkova) | P(Iva Jović) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:05:13 | 2 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} | b | 0.742 | 0.258 | 37.6 | feed |
| 03:05:43 | 2 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} | b | 0.742 | 0.258 | 37.7 | feed |
| 03:06:14 | 2 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} | b | 0.742 | 0.258 | 37.7 | feed |
| 03:06:44 | 2 | 10 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} | b | 0.743 | 0.257 | 37.8 | feed |
| 03:07:15 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.744 | 0.256 | 38.7 | feed |
| 03:07:46 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.747 | 0.253 | 38.8 | feed |
| 03:08:16 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.763 | 0.237 | 38.7 | feed |
| 03:08:47 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.754 | 0.246 | 38.6 | feed |
| 03:09:17 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.744 | 0.256 | 38.6 | feed |
| 03:09:48 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.758 | 0.242 | 38.7 | feed |
| 03:10:18 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.747 | 0.253 | 38.8 | feed |
| 03:10:49 | 2 | 11 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.764 | 0.236 | 38.4 | feed |
| 03:11:19 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.756 | 0.244 | 39.7 | feed |
| 03:11:50 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.746 | 0.254 | 39.6 | feed |
| 03:12:21 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '1']} | b | 0.736 | 0.264 | 39.9 | feed |
| 03:12:51 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '1']} | b | 0.739 | 0.261 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:13:22 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '2']} | b | 0.751 | 0.249 | 39.7 | feed |
| 03:13:52 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '2']} | b | 0.753 | 0.247 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:14:23 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '3']} | b | 0.748 | 0.252 | 39.7 | feed |
| 03:14:54 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '4']} | b | 0.755 | 0.245 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:15:24 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} | b | 0.750 | 0.250 | 39.7 | feed |
| 03:15:55 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} | b | 0.731 | 0.269 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:16:25 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '4']} | b | 0.756 | 0.244 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:16:56 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '4']} | b | 0.738 | 0.262 | 39.7 | feed |
| 03:17:26 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '5']} | b | 0.758 | 0.242 | 39.6 | feed |
| 03:17:57 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '6']} | b | 0.742 | 0.258 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:18:28 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['4', '6']} | b | 0.745 | 0.255 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:18:58 | 2 | 12 | {'sets': [[6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['5', '6']} | b | 0.740 | 0.260 | 39.8 | feed |
| 03:19:29 | 3 | 13 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [7, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['5', '7']} | b | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.0 | feed |
| 03:20:00 | 3 | 13 | {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [7, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '14']} | b | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.0 | feed |