Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-19 15:00:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Rafael Jodar) = 1.000  |  P(Flavio Cobolli) = 0.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Rafael Jodar) 0.735
Pinnacle P(Flavio Cobolli) 0.265
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Rafael JodarFlavio Cobolli Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Rafael Jodar unknown — — —
Flavio Cobolli all_court 44 0.756 5.5

Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentRafael JodarFlavio CobolliNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -3.00pp (load 10.0) -1.50pp (load 3.0) -1.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Rafael Jodar) P(Flavio Cobolli) Exp games Source
17:28:38 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:29:08 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:29:39 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:30:09 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:30:40 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:31:10 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:31:41 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:32:11 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:32:42 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:33:12 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:33:43 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:34:13 3 6 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:34:44 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:35:14 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:35:45 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:36:15 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:36:46 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:37:17 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:37:47 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:38:18 3 7 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:38:48 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:39:19 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:39:49 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:40:20 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:40:50 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:41:21 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:41:52 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:42:22 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:42:53 4 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed
17:43:23 4 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['17', '15']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.