Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-19 23:20:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Jaime Faria) = 0.000  |  P(Lorenzo Musetti) = 1.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Jaime Faria) 0.289
Pinnacle P(Lorenzo Musetti) 0.711
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Jaime FariaLorenzo Musetti Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Jaime Faria unknown — — —
Lorenzo Musetti all_court 117 0.779 4.2

Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentJaime FariaLorenzo MusettiNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -3.00pp (load 7.3) -2.50pp (load 5.0) -0.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (147 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Jaime Faria) P(Lorenzo Musetti) Exp games Source
02:21:23 2 3 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.213 0.787 27.9 feed
02:21:53 2 3 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} b 0.208 0.791 28.0 feed
02:22:24 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.110 0.890 26.8 feed
02:22:54 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.111 0.889 26.8 feed
02:23:25 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.113 0.887 26.9 feed
02:23:55 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.119 0.881 26.9 feed
02:24:26 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.113 0.887 26.9 feed
02:24:57 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.101 0.899 26.8 feed
02:25:27 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.099 0.901 26.9 feed
02:25:58 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.069 0.931 27.1 feed
02:26:28 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.071 0.928 27.1 feed
02:26:59 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.059 0.941 27.1 feed
02:27:29 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.070 0.930 27.1 feed
02:28:00 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.062 0.938 27.2 feed
02:28:30 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.073 0.927 27.2 feed
02:29:01 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} b 0.069 0.931 27.1 feed
02:29:31 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.021 0.979 27.2 feed
02:30:02 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.018 0.983 27.1 feed
02:30:32 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.023 0.977 27.2 feed
02:31:03 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.015 0.985 27.1 feed
02:31:33 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} b 0.019 0.981 27.2 feed
02:32:04 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.065 0.935 29.1 feed
02:32:34 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.073 0.926 29.1 feed
02:33:05 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.064 0.936 29.1 feed
02:33:36 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.071 0.929 29.1 feed
02:34:06 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.072 0.928 29.1 feed
02:34:37 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} b 0.068 0.932 29.1 feed
02:35:07 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.070 0.929 29.0 feed
02:35:38 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.060 0.940 29.0 feed
02:36:08 3 8 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['13', '7']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 147 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.