Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-20 19:00:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Tommy Paul) = 0.000 | P(Flavio Cobolli) = 1.000

live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Tommy Paul)	0.598
Pinnacle P(Flavio Cobolli)	0.402
n_books observed	1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface	Tommy Paul	Flavio Cobolli	Diff (a−b)
hard	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
clay	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
grass	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
indoor	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
overall	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player	Archetype	n matches	Hold %	Aces / match
Tommy Paul	aggressive_baseliner	185	0.803	5.4
Flavio Cobolli	all_court	44	0.756	5.5

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Flavio Cobolli on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

Adjustment	Tommy Paul	Flavio Cobolli	Net
Match fatigue (14d load)	-3.00pp (load 6.6)	-1.65pp (load 3.3)	-1.35pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

Signal	Weight
surface_elo	0.35
recent_form	0.18
h2h_matrix	0.16
surface_transition	0.11
match_simulator	0.10
tournament_fatigue	0.10
Sum	1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time	Set	Game	Score	Server	P(Tommy Paul)	P(Flavio Cobolli)	Exp games	Source
21:29:04	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']}	b	0.490	0.510	32.7	feed
21:29:35	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.499	0.501	32.8	feed
21:30:05	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.517	0.483	32.8	feed
21:30:36	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.508	0.492	32.8	feed
21:31:07	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.487	0.512	33.8	feed
21:31:38	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.494	0.506	33.8	feed
21:32:09	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.498	0.502	33.8	feed
21:32:39	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.502	0.498	33.7	feed
21:33:10	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.487	0.512	33.7	feed
21:33:41	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.507	0.493	33.8	feed
21:34:11	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']}	b	0.483	0.516	33.8	feed
21:34:42	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']}	b	0.510	0.490	33.8	feed
21:35:13	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.504	0.496	33.8	feed
21:35:43	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.491	0.509	34.7	feed
21:36:29	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.496	0.504	34.8	feed
21:37:00	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.477	0.523	34.8	feed
21:37:31	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.493	0.507	34.8	feed
21:38:01	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']}	b	0.493	0.506	34.7	feed
21:38:38	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']}	b	0.499	0.501	34.8	feed
21:39:08	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']}	b	0.493	0.506	34.8	feed
21:39:39	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.428	0.572	35.9	feed
21:40:10	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.432	0.568	35.8	feed
21:40:40	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.412	0.588	35.8	feed
21:41:11	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.439	0.561	35.8	feed
21:41:41	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.430	0.570	35.8	feed
21:42:12	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.435	0.565	35.8	feed
21:42:43	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.413	0.587	35.7	feed
21:43:13	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']}	b	0.418	0.582	35.8	feed
21:43:44	3	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.436	0.564	35.8	feed
21:44:15	4	10	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['14', '13']}	b	0.000	1.000	0.0	feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.