Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima

hard atp masters_1000 best of 3 tennis_atp_cincinnati_open · commence 2026-08-21 19:00:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Taylor Fritz) = 0.000 | P(Brandon Nakashima) = 1.000

live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Taylor Fritz)	0.620
Pinnacle P(Brandon Nakashima)	0.380
n_books observed	1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface	Taylor Fritz	Brandon Nakashima	Diff (a−b)
hard	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
clay	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
grass	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
indoor	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0
overall	1500 (0)	1500 (0)	+0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player	Archetype	n matches	Hold %	Aces / match
Taylor Fritz	big_server	205	0.865	10.4
Brandon Nakashima	aggressive_baseliner	127	0.856	7.9

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Brandon Nakashima on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

Adjustment	Taylor Fritz	Brandon Nakashima	Net
Match fatigue (14d load)	-2.50pp (load 5.0)	-3.00pp (load 9.9)	+0.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

Signal	Weight
surface_elo	0.35
recent_form	0.18
h2h_matrix	0.16
surface_transition	0.11
match_simulator	0.10
tournament_fatigue	0.10
Sum	1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time	Set	Game	Score	Server	P(Taylor Fritz)	P(Brandon Nakashima)	Exp games	Source
22:04:45	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']}	b	0.505	0.495	37.8	feed
22:05:15	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']}	b	0.494	0.506	37.8	feed
22:05:46	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.497	0.502	37.8	feed
22:06:17	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']}	b	0.495	0.505	37.8	feed
22:06:47	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']}	b	0.510	0.490	37.8	feed
22:07:18	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']}	b	0.499	0.500	37.8	feed
22:07:48	3	5	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']}	b	0.492	0.508	37.7	feed
22:08:19	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.526	0.474	38.8	feed
22:08:49	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.513	0.487	38.8	feed
22:09:20	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']}	b	0.481	0.519	38.8	feed
22:09:51	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']}	b	0.484	0.516	38.8	feed
22:10:21	3	6	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.497	0.503	38.8	feed
22:10:52	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.434	0.566	39.8	feed
22:11:22	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.430	0.570	39.7	feed
22:11:53	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.427	0.573	39.8	feed
22:12:23	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.427	0.573	39.7	feed
22:12:54	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.433	0.567	39.8	feed
22:13:25	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.417	0.583	39.8	feed
22:13:55	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']}	b	0.434	0.566	39.7	feed
22:14:26	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']}	b	0.425	0.575	39.8	feed
22:14:56	3	7	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.427	0.573	39.8	feed
22:15:27	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']}	b	0.205	0.794	40.8	feed
22:15:58	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.211	0.788	40.8	feed
22:16:28	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']}	b	0.218	0.782	40.8	feed
22:16:59	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.215	0.785	40.8	feed
22:17:29	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']}	b	0.205	0.795	40.8	feed
22:18:00	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']}	b	0.227	0.773	40.8	feed
22:18:30	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.210	0.790	40.8	feed
22:19:01	3	8	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']}	b	0.224	0.776	40.7	feed
22:19:32	4	9	{'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['17', '15']}	b	0.000	1.000	0.0	feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.