Line shopping
You can't control whether a bet wins. You can control the price you pay for it. Line shopping means checking several sportsbooks and betting where the price is best. It is the one edge that helps every bet you make, and it needs no prediction at all.
Same bet, different prices
Each book sets its own prices and charges its own vig, so the same bet often costs different amounts at different books. One book has the over at −110, another at −105. One has the Lions at +130, another at +140. The bet is identical; only the price is different. As the vig lesson showed, your price is what decides your bet.
Small gaps add up
Five cents on a −110 bet sounds like nothing. In break-even terms it looks like this:
- −110 needs 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38% to break even.
- −105 needs 105 ÷ 205 = 51.22%.
That is more than a point of win rate, for free. Even a good spread bettor wins only somewhat more than half the time over the long run, so a point is a lot. At a 52% win rate, those two prices are the difference between losing and winning, as the example below shows. Over hundreds of bets, the cheaper price is worth more than most opinions about the games.
Plus prices work the same way. Taking the Lions at +140 instead of +130 lowers the break-even from 43.48% to 41.67%, and pays $10 more per $100 every time they win.
Shop the number, too
On spreads and over/unders, books can differ on the number as well as the price. Lions +3.5 at one book and +3 at another are different bets, and in the NFL the half-point across 3 is worth a lot (see Why lines move and key numbers). Sometimes a better number is worth more than a better price.
How Consensus Edge helps
For every bet we show the best price across the books we track. If you pick your book, its price appears beside the best one, so you can see what staying put costs you. Where your book supports it, the Place on button opens its bet slip with the bet filled in; you place it yourself.
Two practical points. A best price only helps if you can bet there, so it pays to have accounts at a few legal books in your state. And prices move, so check the price on the bet slip before you confirm.
Try it: put −110 into the calculator below, then −105, and compare their break-even rates and what each pays on $100.
Example. Two bettors make the same 100 spread picks and win 52 of them. Each bet is sized to win $100. One always takes −110; the other shops and gets −105 (illustrative, not live data):
| Always −110 | Shops for −105 | |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per bet | $110 | $105 |
| 52 wins | 52 × $100 = +$5,200 | 52 × $100 = +$5,200 |
| 48 losses | 48 × $110 = −$5,280 | 48 × $105 = −$5,040 |
| Result | −$80 | +$160 |
| Break-even | 52.38% | 51.22% |
Same picks, same 52 wins. At −110 the bettor finishes $80 down; at −105, $160 up. Five cents a bet was worth $240, and not one pick changed.
Try it
Terms in this lesson
Line ShoppingVigBreak-evenKey NumbersBest OddsMy BookPlace on <Book>