Every pick on the slate is a weighted blend of four independent
signals, an AI confidence modifier, and a closing-line-value audit.
Here is the full math, in plain language, with a worked example.
The four signal pillars
We don't believe any single source — sportsbook lines, Elo ratings,
prediction markets, AI — is reliable alone. We blend them, with
weights that adapt when a signal is missing or noisy.
Square
De-vigged market
The retail consensus, stripped of bookmaker juice. What the
average bet thinks is going to happen.
Sharp
Elo + situational model
Independent power-rating math, layered with injury / weather /
rest / divisional / key-number adjustments per sport.
PM
Prediction markets
Polymarket + Kalshi prices. Money locked behind opinions —
the closest thing to a real-time sharp consensus.
AI
Confidence modifier
Side conviction × value assessment × data quality. Adjusts edge
up or down based on signal agreement and freshness.
A worked example, end-to-end
Take a typical NFL Sunday matchup. Pinnacle posts Kansas City Chiefs
-3.5 (-110) over the Los Angeles Rams. We pull that, plus every other
US sportsbook, plus Polymarket, plus Kalshi.
1
De-vig the market. Pinnacle's -110/-110 reflects
4.5% juice. Strip it to get the true implied prob.
Square: 54.0% Chiefs cover
2
Run the Sharp model. Sport-specific Elo (KC +145
rating vs LAR +65) plus situational signals: KC off bye (+1.5pp),
LAR coming off short week (-2pp), no key-number push tax (line is
-3.5 not -3.0).
Sharp: 58.7% Chiefs cover
3
Read the prediction markets. Polymarket pricing
this matchup at 58 cents on Chiefs ML, Kalshi at 57 — both above
retail consensus.
PM: 57.5% Chiefs win (mapped to spread)
4
Blend with dynamic weights. All four signals
agree directionally → confidence high → blend lands at the
weighted average.
Consensus: 56.8% Chiefs cover
5
Compute the EV vs offered price. If the best
available KC -3.5 line is at -105 (FanDuel reduced juice), our
consensus 56.8% beats the implied 51.2% by 5.6 percentage points.
EV: +5.6pp at FanDuel -105
6
Apply the AI modifier. All four signals point
the same way → side conviction HIGH. EV is real but reasonable
(under our +30pp phantom threshold) → not flagged. Modifier
score: +2pp amplification.
Grade: B · Effective EV +5.7pp
7
Capture for CLV audit. At pick time we store the
offered line (-105 FD). At kickoff we re-pull the closing line
across all books. CLV = our pick-time line minus the no-vig close.
Positive CLV means we beat the market. We publish this number for
every pick.
CLV captured · audit-ready
When we switch a market off
The pipeline above decides whether a price is worth taking. A second,
blunter rule decides whether we will quote that market at all.
We audit every market against its own closing lines. When one shows we are
persistently miscalibrated there — not unlucky, miscalibrated —
we suppress it outright, and no edge in that market gets a recommendation
regardless of how large it looks. MLB moneylines, run lines and totals are
all switched off today on exactly that evidence: the totals audit measured
our picks 14.9 points worse than predicted, at −13.3% ROI, so the
market was killed rather than tuned.
Two consequences worth setting expectations on. Some days the board
recommends nothing at all, and that is the rule working rather than
the site being broken. And a suppressed market says so on
the card — it will not tell you a bet narrowly missed a threshold,
because a switched-off market was never weighed against one.
Raising a floor was considered and rejected: at a higher bar the same
cohort still ran 12.3 points worse than predicted, so a stricter threshold
would have shrunk the sample without touching the miscalibration. Every
suppression is one line of config and is reversed the moment the audit
supports it.
Why this is different
Action Network / VSiN
Editorial-driven picks
No transparent math
No CLV audit per pick
Public/social signals
OddsJam / Unabated
Line shopping
EV calculation
No independent model
No PM integration
Consensus Edge
4-signal blend (Square+Sharp+PM+AI)
Every pick math fully exposed
Per-pick CLV audit + calibration
Steam alerts on watched games
Trust the math, not the marketing
Every claim on this site is auditable. We publish:
/trust/clv · Aggregate
closing-line-value across every pick we've made. If we're not beating
the close, the model isn't real.
/trust/calibration ·
Predicted vs actual win rate by 5pp bucket, per sport, per bet type.
Sharp users want to verify the model is calibrated where it claims to
be. We show you.
/trust/steam · Live feed
of sharp-book line moves (Pinnacle, Circa, BetOnline, Bookmaker,
5Dimes). When 2+ move the same market by ≥2pp inside 5 minutes,
it's real money. We surface it.
/methodology · Full
technical reference. Every signal in the pipeline, with the math
and the empirical basis. For the sharp who wants to verify every
line of reasoning.
Try it on tonight's slate
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