What Consensus Edge does for you
We don't tell you who will win. We tell you whether a price is worth taking, where to get it, and how much to stake.
Price, not picks
Every game has a likelier side, and that isn't the question that makes money. The question is whether the price asks for less than the real chance. As reading odds showed, a bet makes sense only when the outcome is likelier than its break-even rate.
So for every game we build our own estimate of the chance, the consensus, from three sources (Square, Sharp and Crowd), and compare it with the prices at 15+ sportsbooks. A 75% favorite can be a bad bet at its price; a 40% underdog can be a good one.
BET, LEAN and NO EDGE
- BET: the price beats our fair number by enough to justify the full suggested stake at your risk setting.
- LEAN: the price is in your favor, but by less, so the suggested stake is smaller.
- NO EDGE: no bet worth making here at today's price. It does not mean this team loses. Either the price is about fair, or it's a market we don't grade; most NO EDGE cells are the second kind.
Stakes come in units of your bankroll, so the right amount is part of the answer too, and it's kept small on purpose.
Best price, and your book
The same bet costs different amounts at different books. We show the best price we track right now and, if you choose your book above the board, your book's price beside it, so you can see what staying put costs you. If your book is FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesars (BetMGM and Caesars only where they operate in your state), the Place on button opens its bet slip with the bet filled in; you place it yourself.
Right up to kickoff
Prices and news keep changing, so the work keeps going. The board rebuilds about every 10 to 20 minutes until the game starts, so line moves and late news reach our numbers. At kickoff we stop: the game freezes at its last pregame numbers and shows In Play with the time it froze, so its grade is the pregame one.
What we don't promise
A good price still loses often. A 57% bet loses 43 times in 100, and a handful of results says very little either way (see variance). Nothing here is a sure thing, and anyone selling certainty in sports betting is selling something else. What we offer is an honest estimate of the chance, the best price we can find, and a sensible stake. Bet only from your bankroll, and never chase a loss.
Example. Our consensus gives the Bears a 57% chance to win (illustrative, not live data). Two prices on the Bears moneyline:
| Best price (Book A) | Your book | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | −120 | −135 |
| Break-even | 54.5% | 57.4% |
| Average result per $100 | about +$4.50 | about −$0.80 |
Same team, same 57%. At −120 the chance clears break-even, and the bet earns about $4.50 per $100 over the long run, its expected value. At −135 it falls just short, a small loser on average. The difference isn't the pick; it's the price.
Terms in this lesson
ConsensusBreak-evenBETLEANNO EDGEUnitBest OddsMy BookPlace on <Book>In PlayVarianceExpected Value