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MLB pitcher pricing

Pitcher-based pricing: display-only

We built a version of our MLB pricing that rates starting pitchers by Statcast xwOBA. We tested it on first-five-innings moneylines: on 298 games it had not seen, it did not beat the market's price. It stays off.

First 5 innings: our moneyline vs the market

Settled picks: 1,179 · Our Brier 0.2449 · Market 0.2413 (lower is better)

Over these picks, the market's price was more accurate than ours.