Brier and calibration buckets for the tennis pipeline. Pinnacle pre-match
no-vig P(player_a) is the anchor; outcome from tennis_in_play_match_meta
(only outcome_type='completed' included — retirements/walkovers excluded
from headline per finalizer convention).
Rolling Brier: 0.1934
|
Uniform baseline: 0.2500
N settled = 1766
Live coverage — same-day withdrawal gate
Tour-asymmetric by design. Disclosed honestly so users can size accordingly.
Tennis live-coverage withdrawal-gate status by tour.
Tour
Source
Status
Notes
Withdrawals last 7d
WTA
api.wtatennis.com (official Pulselive)
live
—
0
ATP
api.atptour.com
blocked
No live feed: the ATP site blocks automated access.
ATP coverage gap. ATP picks have NO live same-day withdrawal coverage. Chronic injury history still applies. Apply tighter sizing on ATP favorites during Slam first weeks.
We don't work around a site's bot protection.
Closing the gap needs a licensed tennis data feed, or official access like the WTA's.
Acceptance gate
✓ N=1766 ≥ N=40 per-bucket target
for the bucketed Brier check.
Calibration buckets (5pp bands)
Tennis calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket
N
Predicted mean
Actual rate
Gap (pp)
Tripwire
0.00 – 0.05
6
0.039
0.000
-3.9pp
● ok
0.05 – 0.10
36
0.076
0.111
+3.5pp
● ok
0.10 – 0.15
56
0.127
0.036
-9.2pp
● watch
0.15 – 0.20
67
0.175
0.194
+1.9pp
● ok
0.20 – 0.25
80
0.225
0.188
-3.8pp
● ok
0.25 – 0.30
105
0.272
0.219
-5.3pp
● watch
0.30 – 0.35
118
0.325
0.305
-2.0pp
● ok
0.35 – 0.40
119
0.375
0.395
+2.0pp
● ok
0.40 – 0.45
147
0.425
0.395
-3.0pp
● ok
0.45 – 0.50
105
0.476
0.438
-3.8pp
● ok
0.50 – 0.55
121
0.527
0.488
-4.0pp
● ok
0.55 – 0.60
152
0.575
0.513
-6.1pp
● watch
0.60 – 0.65
136
0.622
0.632
+1.0pp
● ok
0.65 – 0.70
108
0.674
0.648
-2.6pp
● ok
0.70 – 0.75
110
0.724
0.709
-1.5pp
● ok
0.75 – 0.80
104
0.774
0.779
+0.4pp
● ok
0.80 – 0.85
75
0.827
0.893
+6.6pp
● watch
0.85 – 0.90
68
0.870
0.912
+4.2pp
● ok
0.90 – 0.95
43
0.926
0.977
+5.1pp
● watch
0.95 – 1.00
10
0.969
1.000
+3.1pp
● ok
Buckets shown only when N ≥ 5. Tripwire (tennis-expert 2026-05-24 lock):
green <5pp | yellow 5-10pp or thin-N | red ≥10pp at N≥30 (action: hand to
win-rate-optimizer).
ATP / WTA tour-parity audit
Tennis ATP/WTA tour-parity coverage audit.
Tour
N total
N settled
N with anchor
Settlement %
Anchor %
ATP
950
822
942
86.5%
99.2%
WTA
1065
955
1058
89.7%
99.3%
Parity gap (ATP − WTA)
-115
—
—
-3.1pp
-0.2pp
Per audit competitive-advantage #9: WTA parity is a user-acquisition advantage. ATP-side bias greater than 5pp on
settlement or anchor rates flagged in red.
Recent settled matches
Recent settled tennis matches with model probability and result.
Variance disclosure: tennis is best-of-3 single-match noisy. Brier reads
meaningful at N≥200 across surface×tour-level segments per acceptance
framework. Pre-RG numbers are preliminary.