Brier and calibration buckets for the tennis pipeline. Pinnacle pre-match
no-vig P(player_a) is the anchor; outcome from tennis_in_play_match_meta
(only outcome_type='completed' included — retirements/walkovers excluded
from headline per finalizer convention).
Rolling Brier: 0.1961
|
Uniform baseline: 0.2500
N settled = 1236
Live coverage — same-day withdrawal gate
Tour-asymmetric by design. Disclosed honestly so users can size accordingly.
Tennis live-coverage withdrawal-gate status by tour.
ATP coverage gap. ATP picks have NO live same-day withdrawal coverage. Chronic injury history (retirement_risk.py) still applies. Apply tighter sizing on ATP favorites during Slam first weeks.
Policy: CLAUDE.md jurisdiction rule + 2026-05-17 FBref/ufcstats memory — no bypass.
Resolution path: Paid data source (Sportradar tennis ~$30-50k/yr) or direct WTA-style relationship.
Acceptance gate
✓ N=1236 ≥ N=40 per-bucket target
for the bucketed Brier check.
Calibration buckets (5pp bands)
Tennis calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket
N
Predicted mean
Actual rate
Gap (pp)
Tripwire
0.05 – 0.10
27
0.077
0.111
+3.5pp
● ok
0.10 – 0.15
43
0.127
0.047
-8.1pp
● watch
0.15 – 0.20
43
0.174
0.140
-3.4pp
● ok
0.20 – 0.25
53
0.226
0.226
+0.0pp
● ok
0.25 – 0.30
71
0.272
0.239
-3.3pp
● ok
0.30 – 0.35
86
0.325
0.302
-2.2pp
● ok
0.35 – 0.40
77
0.375
0.403
+2.8pp
● ok
0.40 – 0.45
104
0.425
0.365
-6.0pp
● watch
0.45 – 0.50
83
0.475
0.410
-6.5pp
● watch
0.50 – 0.55
90
0.527
0.489
-3.8pp
● ok
0.55 – 0.60
107
0.573
0.477
-9.6pp
● watch
0.60 – 0.65
99
0.623
0.646
+2.3pp
● ok
0.65 – 0.70
75
0.674
0.627
-4.7pp
● ok
0.70 – 0.75
72
0.726
0.694
-3.1pp
● ok
0.75 – 0.80
69
0.775
0.754
-2.2pp
● ok
0.80 – 0.85
53
0.827
0.906
+7.9pp
● watch
0.85 – 0.90
41
0.872
0.878
+0.6pp
● ok
0.90 – 0.95
30
0.928
1.000
+7.2pp
● watch
0.95 – 1.00
9
0.969
1.000
+3.1pp
● ok
Buckets shown only when N ≥ 5. Tripwire (tennis-expert 2026-05-24 lock):
green <5pp | yellow 5-10pp or thin-N | red ≥10pp at N≥30 (action: hand to
win-rate-optimizer).
ATP / WTA tour-parity audit
Tennis ATP/WTA tour-parity coverage audit.
Tour
N total
N settled
N with anchor
Settlement %
Anchor %
ATP
778
596
770
76.6%
99.0%
WTA
815
647
808
79.4%
99.1%
Parity gap (ATP − WTA)
-37
—
—
-2.8pp
-0.2pp
Per audit competitive-advantage #9: WTA parity is a user-acquisition advantage. ATP-side bias greater than 5pp on
settlement or anchor rates flagged in red.
Recent settled matches
Recent settled tennis matches with model probability and result.
Variance disclosure: tennis is best-of-3 single-match noisy. Brier reads
meaningful at N≥200 across surface×tour-level segments per acceptance
framework. Pre-RG numbers are preliminary.