Calibration of settled soccer picks: the model's Brier against the
market's, per league. A split by xG source is added once xG prices
live picks.
Soccer xG cohort split
Not live yet. xG has not priced a soccer pick: every pick so far was
priced without it, so there is nothing to split by xG source.
Per-league calibration
How settled picks scored in each league. Brier measures how close each
pick's probability was to the result, so lower is better. Lift is the
model's Brier minus the market's, so negative means the model beat the
market. It shows whether the model's edge holds across leagues or
comes from one.