Variance-honest tracking + methods-tree calibration. Per nhl-betting-expert
audit: NHL is high-variance; this page surfaces drawdown windows + CLV
trajectory so users can evaluate edge over multi-bet samples, not single
outcomes.
NHL goalie watcher
—
DEGRADED
Poll cadence: 180s
· Last game count: 0
· Last fetch: 0s ago
· Consecutive empty cycles: 2 / 5
Upcoming goalies (NHL Web API)
No upcoming NHL games in the next few days.
Methods-tree calibration (N=100 gate)
N=0 of 100 target. Methods-tree EV display
carries preliminary caveat until gate met.
NHL methods-tree calibration by outcome.
Outcome
N
Brier
home_reg
0
—
away_reg
0
—
tie
0
—
Aggregate
0
—
Variance dashboard (1000 picks)
Current PL +0.07u
Total bets 1000
Max drawdown 0.09u
Max upswing 0.09u
Expected band at 3% edge × N=1000 bets:
30.00u
(95% CI: -31.98 → 91.98)
CLV trajectory (last 20)
NHL CLV trajectory over the last 20 settled picks.
Bet #
Cumulative CLV (pp)
981
+6.96pp
982
+6.97pp
983
+6.99pp
984
+7.07pp
985
+7.05pp
986
+6.92pp
987
+6.91pp
988
+7.02pp
989
+7.03pp
990
+7.03pp
991
+6.94pp
992
+6.95pp
993
+6.99pp
994
+6.89pp
995
+6.88pp
996
+6.85pp
997
+6.90pp
998
+6.93pp
999
+6.87pp
1000
+6.89pp
Variance disclosure: 3+ seasons of NHL data needed for meaningful
calibration; hockey single-season variance is too high for definitive
conclusions. Read this dashboard as a multi-bet expectation, not a
single-game tout.
Variance-honest tracking
What to expect. NHL has the highest single-bet variance of any major sport. Expected drawdown for a +5% EV bettor over 100 bets is roughly +/-15 units; over 500 bets is roughly +/-25 units. A 200-bet losing stretch is normal even with positive EV. Read your win rate, ROI, and CLV across hundreds of bets, not dozens.
Expected drawdown windows
Cumulative-PnL quantiles for an N-bet sample at the assumed parameters
(win prob = 0.525,
payout = 0.91u
per win, 1-unit stake). 90% of N-bet outcomes land between the 5% and
95% columns; you should expect to be at or below the 5% column 1 time
in 20.
NHL expected drawdown windows by sample size.
Bets (N)
5% quantile (units)
Median (units)
95% quantile (units)
25
-7.78u
+0.07u
+7.91u
50
-10.96u
+0.14u
+11.23u
75
-13.38u
+0.21u
+13.79u
100
-15.42u
+0.28u
+15.97u
125
-17.20u
+0.34u
+17.89u
150
-18.80u
+0.41u
+19.63u
175
-20.27u
+0.48u
+21.24u
200
-21.64u
+0.55u
+22.74u
225
-22.92u
+0.62u
+24.15u
250
-24.12u
+0.69u
+25.50u
275
-25.26u
+0.76u
+26.78u
300
-26.35u
+0.82u
+28.00u
325
-27.39u
+0.89u
+29.18u
350
-28.39u
+0.96u
+30.32u
375
-29.35u
+1.03u
+31.41u
400
-30.28u
+1.10u
+32.48u
425
-31.18u
+1.17u
+33.51u
450
-32.05u
+1.24u
+34.52u
475
-32.89u
+1.31u
+35.50u
500
-33.71u
+1.38u
+36.46u
CLV trajectory (1000 of 1000 picks have closing line)
Picks with positive CLV 519
Picks with negative CLV 481
Cumulative CLV +689.16pp
Rolling mean CLV +0.689pp
Per nhl-betting-expert calibration framework, "CLV over 500+ bets" is a
key sharp-bettor metric. Positive cumulative CLV across hundreds of
bets indicates you are consistently beating the closing line.