Experts vs the closing line
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. An expert is ranked once there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; until then the row reads Building sample. Our own row follows the same rule. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 79 | see /trust/clv | n/a | +0.2pp (n=79) | 42% | n/a | Ahead of the close on average; the range still includes zero. | n/a | Sep 13 | |
| Jason Logan | Covers | 17 | 7-10-0 | -22.2% | +1.6pp (n=6) | 100% | +0.40 pts | Building sample (n = 17) | matchup 33%, injury 17% | Oct 4 |
| Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 14 | 5-9-0 | -32.6% | -1.7pp (n=8) | 38% | +0.15 pts | Building sample (n = 14) | matchup 37%, trend 34% | Oct 4 |
| Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 10 | 6-4-0 | +17.3% | -3.2pp (n=2) | 0% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 10) | matchup 30%, numbers_model 30% | Oct 4 |
| Andy Lang | WagerTalk | 10 | 9-1-0 | +41.3% | -1.5pp (n=10) | 40% | n/a | Building sample (n = 10) | matchup 53%, trend 16% | Oct 1 |
| Stuckey | Action Network | 9 | 3-6-0 | -29.8% | -2.7pp (n=5) | 20% | +0.43 pts | Building sample (n = 9) | matchup 27%, injury 21% | Oct 4 |
| Danny Howard | Covers | 7 | 7-0-0 | +44.5% | -3.5pp (n=7) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 7) | matchup 47%, trend 33% | Oct 3 |
| Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 5 | 2-3-0 | -17.7% | -0.2pp (n=5) | 20% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | matchup 33%, trend 33% | Oct 4 |
| Neil Parker | Covers | 5 | 2-3-0 | -19.2% | -1.0pp (n=2) | 50% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | numbers_model 28%, matchup 28% | Oct 2 |
| Brad Powers | Covers | 5 | 3-2-0 | +16.3% | n/a | n/a | -0.40 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | numbers_model 25%, line_value 25% | Oct 1 |
| Chris Farley | Pickswise | 4 | 2-2-0 | -2.3% | n/a | n/a | +0.75 pts | Building sample (n = 4) | matchup 33%, trend 25% | Sep 30 |
| Nick Griffith | Action Network | 4 | 3-1-0 | +60.8% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 4) | matchup 33%, line_value 25% | Oct 1 |
| Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 3 | 1-2-0 | -36.9% | -2.4pp (n=3) | 0% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 3) | matchup 43%, trend 28% | Oct 3 |
| Brandon Anderson | Action Network | 3 | 3-0-0 | +92.6% | n/a | n/a | +0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 3) | line_value 30%, trend 20% | Oct 3 |
| Collin Wilson | Action Network | 2 | 1-1-0 | -4.5% | n/a | n/a | -0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 40%, numbers_model 40% | Oct 3 |
| Javan Shouey | Pickswise | 1 | 1-0-0 | +73.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Sep 30 |
| Ethan Diamandas | Sportsbook Review | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, trend 33% | Oct 2 |