Experts vs the closing line
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. An expert is ranked once there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; until then the row reads Building sample. Our own row follows the same rule. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 63 | see /trust/clv | n/a | +3.9pp (n=63) | 76% | n/a | Beating the close, clear of our target. | n/a | Sep 13 | |
| Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 10 | 4-6-0 | -26.7% | -3.3pp (n=5) | 20% | +0.20 pts | Building sample (n = 10) | trend 40%, matchup 40% | Oct 4 |
| Jason Logan | Covers | 7 | 4-3-0 | +8.1% | n/a | n/a | +0.57 pts | Building sample (n = 7) | matchup 33%, weather 14% | Oct 4 |
| Neil Parker | Covers | 3 | 0-3-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 3) | numbers_model 38%, matchup 25% | Oct 1 |
| Chris Farley | Pickswise | 2 | 1-1-0 | -4.5% | n/a | n/a | +1.25 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 33%, numbers_model 33% | Sep 30 |
| Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 1 | 1-0-0 | +89.3% | n/a | n/a | +2.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 25%, numbers_model 25% | Sep 30 |
| Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, numbers_model 33% | Sep 30 |
| Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 1 | 1-0-0 | +89.3% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 50%, matchup 50% | Oct 3 |
| Brad Powers | Covers | 1 | 1-0-0 | +92.6% | n/a | n/a | -1.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | coaching 33%, trend 33% | Oct 1 |