Model CLV — Aggregate Audit

Per-sport closing-line-value audit on the platform's recommended picks. CLV = model implied prob − closing-market no-vig prob. Positive mean CLV means our picks consistently beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

Window:
30 days 90 days All time
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: CLV computed at game settlement against closing line (Pinnacle preferred, falls through to best-priced sharp book). Buckets with N<30 hidden until threshold met. Backfilled via OddsAPI historical-markets API; capture rate 84.3% (was 40.5% before 2026-05-10 fix).
Model CLV by sport and bet type.
Sport Bet type N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB moneyline 408 -0.10pp -0.29pp 47.1%
MLB over_under 408 +5.32pp +4.24pp 80.6%
MLB spread 408 +5.26pp +4.89pp 67.9%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS moneyline 78 +4.43pp +1.40pp 57.7%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS over_under 65 -0.57pp +0.58pp 61.5%
NFL_PRESEASON moneyline 33 +4.40pp +2.82pp 72.7%
NFL_PRESEASON over_under 32 +0.07pp +0.05pp 71.9%
NFL_PRESEASON spread 32 +5.77pp +6.02pp 96.9%
TENNIS_ATP moneyline 269 -1.55pp -1.41pp 37.9%
TENNIS_WTA moneyline 256 +1.42pp +1.83pp 59.0%

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

cumulative mean CLV (pp) · N=2172+2.18pp

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.