Model CLV — Aggregate Audit

Per-sport closing-line-value audit on the platform's recommended picks. CLV = model implied prob − closing-market no-vig prob. Positive mean CLV means our picks consistently beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

Window:
30 days 90 days All time
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: CLV computed at game settlement against closing line (Pinnacle preferred, falls through to best-priced sharp book). Buckets with N<30 hidden until threshold met. Backfilled via OddsAPI historical-markets API; capture rate 84.3% (was 40.5% before 2026-05-10 fix).
Model CLV by sport and bet type.
Sport Bet type N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
EPL moneyline 44 -7.87pp -7.61pp 20.5%
LALIGA moneyline 71 -6.93pp -5.69pp 28.2%
LALIGA over_under 32 +1.95pp +0.94pp 56.2%
MLB moneyline 1,857 +0.53pp +0.37pp 53.0%
MLB over_under 1,119 +3.64pp +3.07pp 73.8%
MLB spread 1,121 +6.49pp +6.38pp 71.1%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS moneyline 518 -0.52pp -2.30pp 34.4%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS over_under 111 +0.58pp +0.44pp 67.6%
NBA moneyline 76 +1.01pp -2.30pp 32.9%
NFL_PRESEASON moneyline 35 +4.38pp +2.82pp 74.3%
NFL_PRESEASON over_under 33 +0.09pp +0.05pp 72.7%
NFL_PRESEASON spread 33 +5.92pp +6.19pp 97.0%
NHL moneyline 64 -0.58pp -0.51pp 45.3%
SERIEA moneyline 59 -15.74pp -18.01pp 10.2%
TENNIS_ATP moneyline 1,058 -2.99pp -2.57pp 30.7%
TENNIS_WTA moneyline 1,050 -1.12pp -0.21pp 48.5%

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

cumulative mean CLV (pp) · N=7807+1.01pp

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.