Model CLV: aggregate audit

Closing-line-value audit of the platform's picks: the ones we recommended, and every market we priced. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

+0.21pp
Ahead of the close on average; the range still includes zero.
Mean closing-line value across 79 recommended picks with a closing line; the price moved our way on 41.8% of them. 95% range -0.5 to +0.9pp, 0.79pp short of our +1.00pp target.

Both prices are the best on the board at their moment, when we posted and at the last capture before kickoff: this measures whether the market came toward us after we posted, not any one book's close.

Since 5 October 2026 our model starts from the market's price, so calls are rarer. Earlier calls stay in this record.

-0.68pp
Not beating the close.
Every market we priced, recommended or not: 4,694 markets; the price did not move our way on 62.0% of them. 95% range -0.8 to -0.6pp, 1.68pp short of our +1.00pp target.

This is the model's raw number, before the selection gate, and the one the plan below is about.

Bar for selling picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp
Window (by game date):
30 days 90 days All time Since 12 Sep fix
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: The close is the last price captured before kickoff, and a row is recomputed whenever a fresher close is captured. Buckets with N<30 are hidden. The Since 12 Sep fix window starts at the closing-line capture fix of 12 September 2026, the cohort the selling test is judged on. CLV compares the best price available when we posted the pick with the best price available at the last capture before kickoff. Both ends are best-of-board, and the close is captured across at least as many books as the board we post from, Pinnacle where it is quoted, so the comparison does not tilt in our favour.

Every market we priced, by sport and market

Every market we priced, by sport and market: model CLV per bucket.
Sport Market N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB Moneyline 901 -0.33pp -0.42pp 42.0%
MLB Spread 837 -0.95pp -0.85pp 33.9%
WTA Tennis Moneyline 540 -0.41pp -0.22pp 42.4%
MLB Over/Under 469 -0.25pp -0.25pp 42.6%
ATP Tennis Moneyline 458 -0.95pp -0.76pp 38.9%
NCAAF Moneyline 280 -2.33pp -1.47pp 22.1%
UFC Moneyline 195 -1.31pp +0.21pp 51.3%
UFC Over/Under 121 -0.41pp -0.70pp 43.8%
La Liga Moneyline 70 -1.45pp -1.36pp 34.3%
NCAAF Spread 70 -0.74pp -0.24pp 11.4%
NCAAF Over/Under 64 -0.54pp -0.46pp 10.9%
NFL Moneyline 62 -1.15pp -0.95pp 43.5%
La Liga Over/Under 52 -0.55pp -1.24pp 36.5%
EPL Moneyline 50 +3.08pp† -0.17pp 50.0%
Serie A Moneyline 50 -1.98pp -2.56pp 28.0%
Ligue 1 Moneyline 45 +1.77pp +0.66pp 51.1%
NHL Spread 45 -0.67pp -0.48pp 42.2%
Bundesliga Moneyline 36 +2.93pp +0.08pp 50.0%
Serie A Over/Under 34 -0.98pp -2.38pp 38.2%
EPL Over/Under 33 -2.34pp -2.68pp 30.3%
Ligue 1 Over/Under 31 -0.87pp +0.22pp 51.6%
NHL Over/Under 31 -0.77pp -0.42pp 32.3%

† mean and median differ by 3pp or more: a few large moves drive this cell.

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

Cumulative mean CLV, every market we priced · N=4,694 · 9 Jul 2026 to 7 Oct 2026 · ends at -0.68pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly distributed. Today the largest sample is MLB, 2,207 markets at -0.55pp, and the widest gap is NCAAF, -1.78pp on 414. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory above, by game date, is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Today, on this window: +0.21pp, range -0.5 to +0.9pp, on 79 picks. Does not clear it. Until it does we are not selling picks, and this page will keep saying so.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.