Model CLV: aggregate audit

Closing-line-value audit of the platform's picks: the ones we recommended, and every market we priced. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

+1.52pp
Beating the close. Above our target, on a sample too small to call that settled.
Mean closing-line value across 233 recommended picks with a closing line; the price moved our way on 51.9% of them. 95% range +0.7 to +2.3pp.

Both prices are the best on the board at their moment, when we posted and at the last capture before kickoff: this measures whether the market came toward us after we posted, not any one book's close.

Since 5 October 2026 our model starts from the market's price, so calls are rarer. Earlier calls stay in this record.

-0.47pp
Behind the close by a small, real margin.
Every market we priced, recommended or not: 8,812 markets; the price did not move our way on 60.2% of them. 95% range -0.6 to -0.3pp, 1.47pp short of our +1.00pp target. At -110 that is the gap between -110 and -108: about 2 cents of price.

This is the model's raw number, before the selection gate, and the one the plan below is about.

Bar for selling picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp
Window (by game date):
30 days 90 days All time Since 12 Sep fix
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: The close is the last price captured before kickoff, and a row is recomputed whenever a fresher close is captured. Buckets with N<30 are hidden. The Since 12 Sep fix window starts at the closing-line capture fix of 12 September 2026, the cohort the selling test is judged on. CLV compares the best price available when we posted the pick with the best price available at the last capture before kickoff. Both ends are best-of-board, and the close is captured across at least as many books as the board we post from, Pinnacle where it is quoted, so the comparison does not tilt in our favour.

Every market we priced, by sport and market

Every market we priced, by sport and market: model CLV per bucket.
Sport Market N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB Moneyline 2,077 -0.62pp -0.57pp 37.9%
MLB Spread 1,164 -0.62pp -0.65pp 38.1%
WTA Tennis Moneyline 1,013 -0.48pp -0.31pp 38.9%
ATP Tennis Moneyline 972 -0.68pp -0.45pp 41.2%
MLB Over/Under 684 +0.15pp +0.00pp 47.8%
UFC Moneyline 415 -1.01pp +0.00pp 48.7%
NCAAF Moneyline 280 -2.33pp -1.47pp 22.1%
NHL Moneyline 270 -0.47pp -0.19pp 37.8%
NBA Moneyline 221 -0.31pp +0.00pp 47.1%
La Liga Moneyline 169 -1.92pp -1.83pp 32.5%
Serie A Moneyline 138 +0.38pp -1.54pp 34.1%
EPL Moneyline 129 +0.84pp -0.68pp 45.0%
UFC Over/Under 122 -0.41pp -0.70pp 43.4%
NHL Spread 109 +0.74pp +0.00pp 45.9%
Bundesliga Moneyline 107 +2.12pp +0.00pp 49.5%
NHL Over/Under 80 +2.17pp +1.19pp 62.5%
NCAAB Moneyline 73 +1.30pp +0.63pp 58.9%
NCAAF Spread 70 -0.74pp -0.24pp 11.4%
NCAAF Over/Under 64 -0.54pp -0.46pp 10.9%
NFL Moneyline 62 -1.15pp -0.95pp 43.5%
Ligue 1 Moneyline 56 -0.72pp -1.28pp 46.4%
La Liga Over/Under 52 -0.55pp -1.24pp 36.5%
EPL Over/Under 50 -1.13pp -1.71pp 40.0%
Serie A Over/Under 43 -1.29pp -1.98pp 30.2%
IPL Cricket Moneyline 41 -0.60pp +0.00pp 41.5%
Champions League Moneyline 39 +6.74pp† -1.90pp 43.6%
Bundesliga Over/Under 34 +2.84pp +0.86pp 64.7%
EPL Spread 33 -0.53pp -0.72pp 33.3%
Ligue 1 Over/Under 32 -1.01pp +0.01pp 50.0%

† mean and median differ by 3pp or more: a few large moves drive this cell.

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

Cumulative mean CLV, every market we priced · N=8,812 · 17 Mar 2026 to 7 Oct 2026 · ends at -0.47pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly distributed. Today the largest sample is MLB, 3,925 markets at -0.48pp, and the widest gap is NCAAF, -1.78pp on 414. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory above, by game date, is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Today, on this window: +1.52pp, range +0.7 to +2.3pp, on 233 picks. Clears the bar. Declaring the record open is a decision we make in the open, with the reason stated here, not a switch this page flips.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.