Model CLV — Aggregate Audit

Per-sport closing-line-value audit on the platform's recommended picks. CLV = model implied prob − closing-market no-vig prob. Positive mean CLV means our picks consistently beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

Window:
30 days 90 days All time
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: CLV computed at game settlement against closing line (Pinnacle preferred, falls through to best-priced sharp book). Buckets with N<30 hidden until threshold met. Backfilled via OddsAPI historical-markets API; capture rate 84.3% (was 40.5% before 2026-05-10 fix).
Model CLV by sport and bet type.
Sport Bet type N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
BUNDESLIGA moneyline 144 -6.25pp -5.87pp 21.5%
BUNDESLIGA over_under 31 +4.02pp +3.87pp 83.9%
BUNDESLIGA spread 31 +7.70pp +6.26pp 83.9%
CRICKET_IPL moneyline 85 -1.95pp -1.89pp 28.2%
EPL moneyline 169 -7.32pp -6.44pp 21.9%
EPL over_under 90 +6.06pp +4.24pp 80.0%
EPL spread 88 +2.97pp +1.58pp 60.2%
LALIGA moneyline 213 -5.60pp -5.54pp 24.4%
LALIGA over_under 50 +4.48pp +2.79pp 70.0%
LALIGA spread 43 +3.49pp +4.01pp 67.4%
LIGUE1 moneyline 93 -7.73pp -9.74pp 24.7%
LIGUE1 over_under 38 +0.86pp +1.03pp 57.9%
MLB moneyline 3,170 +0.45pp +0.09pp 50.7%
MLB over_under 1,856 +3.48pp +2.72pp 77.0%
MLB spread 1,883 +3.62pp +3.21pp 64.1%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS moneyline 706 -2.65pp -3.75pp 28.5%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS over_under 130 +0.84pp +0.53pp 68.5%
NBA moneyline 556 +0.82pp -3.44pp 37.9%
NBA over_under 231 +4.58pp +2.29pp 91.8%
NBA spread 241 +1.64pp +1.73pp 87.6%
NCAAB moneyline 148 -4.73pp -5.23pp 32.4%
NCAAB over_under 74 +6.45pp +5.31pp 94.6%
NCAAB spread 75 +6.92pp +4.17pp 93.3%
NFL_PRESEASON moneyline 35 +4.38pp +2.82pp 74.3%
NFL_PRESEASON over_under 33 +0.09pp +0.05pp 72.7%
NFL_PRESEASON spread 33 +5.92pp +6.19pp 97.0%
NHL moneyline 562 -1.78pp -1.79pp 32.2%
NHL over_under 225 +3.84pp +1.50pp 73.8%
NHL spread 232 +3.43pp +4.85pp 77.6%
SERIEA moneyline 190 -12.07pp -11.30pp 12.1%
SERIEA over_under 71 +5.21pp +3.97pp 83.1%
SERIEA spread 58 +5.75pp +7.87pp 72.4%
TENNIS_ATP moneyline 1,544 -4.18pp -3.58pp 26.8%
TENNIS_WTA moneyline 1,517 -3.00pp -1.63pp 40.4%
UCL moneyline 35 -6.02pp -10.14pp 31.4%

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

cumulative mean CLV (pp) · N=14786+0.08pp

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.